WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL 13-NM 
EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE MSI 
ALSO DEPICTS A STRONG FEEDER BAND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A WEAKER BAND LOOSELY 
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 192226Z SSMIS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAS SLIGHTLY 
DEGRADED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS, AND COULD BE THE RESULT OF AN EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI 
ANIMATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SLIGHTLY 
DISPLACED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW 
AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS 
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 72, AN 
EXTENSION TO THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND PUSH THE TRACK OF 
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS STY 26W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR 
AXIS. THOUGH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST, 
THEY ARE CURRENTLY BEING OFFSET BY ERCS AND A TONGUE OF COOL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). FRANCISCO APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS 
PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO SUSTAIN 140 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCOMB TO INCREASING VWS AS IT 
APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AS WELL AS EVEN COLDER SSTS 
WHICH WILL FURTHER ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. HOWEVER, INCREASED 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW COULD POTENTIALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND HELP SUSTAIN 
THE CONVECTION, THEREBY TEMPERING THE WEAKENING TREND.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, STY FRANCISCO WILL BEGIN TO CREST THE STR AXIS, 
ALLOWING FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND SETTING INTO A NORTHEASTWARD 
RECURVATURE TOWARD JAPAN. A DECREASE IN SSTS AND FURTHER INCREASE IN 
VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM 
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS 
WIDELY SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE 
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. ALL OBJECTIVE AIDS INDICATE 
SOME DEGREE OF A RECURVE SCENARIO, BUT WIDELY VARY IN THE TIGHTNESS 
OF THE TURN AS WELL AS TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS 
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF 
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AT 
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
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