WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A DEEPENING SYSTEM, GROWING IN SIZE AND SYMMETRY, WITH 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 121403Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS THE LARGE EXTENT OF WIND FIELD 
AROUND 25W. A 122101Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE 
IMPROVING CONVECTION OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND THE FORMATION OF A 
MICROWAVE EYE.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND 
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW 
DVORAK INTENSITY AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS, AND 
ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 25W IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ABOUT FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
AXIS, WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO 
THE NORTHEAST. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER WIND RADII HAVE BEEN 
ADJUSTED UPWARD BASED ON OSCAT IMAGERY TO REFLECT THE LARGE STORM 
SIZE.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT 
PROGRESSES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL 
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36, 
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN A SPEEDY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) 
PRIOR TO TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM IS PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, NOW 
THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE OF 
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE 
OBJECTIVE AIDS THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK 
IS HIGH.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT PRIOR TO TAU 
96.  DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
TRACK IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES 
IN ALONG TRACK TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST 
IS LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE.//
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