WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS A PINHOLE
EYE BECAME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 24W IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR A ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM
MAY SEE A SPIKE IN THE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO LUZON
NEAR TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) BEFORE TAU 24. ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, TY
24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, PERSIST. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON NARI WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF 
HUE, VIETNAM, THEN COMMENCE RAPID DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  //
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