WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
523 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 090109Z 
METOP-B IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG 
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS IMAGERY 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT 
EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TD 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TD 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK 
ACROSS LUZON. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 12 
DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS. THEREAFTER, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL 
IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
70 KNOTS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 24W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN 
UNTIL IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TD 24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY 
AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES TO AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. 
TD 24W SHOULD TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT 
TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR. BASED ON THE TIGHT 
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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