WDPN33 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 24// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED AND ELONGATED EYE AS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER CONTINUE TO UNRAVEL AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY SOLID EVEN AS THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON CLOSELY-SPACED RADAR AND POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY FITOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR WENZHOU, CHINA, SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 22W WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. // NNNN