WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM EAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS 
A BROKEN EYE FEATURE WITH SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING 
TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. A 051103Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE 
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED IN 
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. THE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE FRACTURED 
NATURE OF THE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR 
LOOP AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, WHICH HAS WEAKENED MUCH OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, 
A THIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF TY 22W CAN BE 
SEEN BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF TY 23W. TY 
22W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. 
FITOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36 
AND TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND 
AND INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEM BEING DISSIPATED OVER 
LAND BY TAU 72. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INCREASED INTERACTION OF THE 
OUTFLOW CHANNELS BETWEEN TY 22W AND TY 23W COULD LEAD TO BINARY 
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THIS, DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A TIGHTER CLUSTER OF MODEL 
TRACKERS AS TY 22W APPROACHES LANDFALL. BASED ON THE IMPROVED 
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST 
TRACK.//
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