WDPN33 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A 15 NM EYE. A 032359Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS TY 22W HAS DEVELOPED RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO ITS WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. TY 22W IS SLOWLY STEERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY FITOW IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CTCX, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF OKINAWA WITH A 80 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36. C. AFTER TAU 72, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED AS TY 22W APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA, WHICH WILL QUICKLY DEGRADE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN