WDPN33 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 10// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROKEN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 021138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED LLCC THAT HAS YET TO BECOME FULLY CONSOLIDATED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE IN THE LOWER FREQUENCIES OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED 37GHZ SSMIS PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND THE BROKEN NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 22W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THAT IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WESTWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN. B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE EAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST OF JAPAN. THIS BUILDING STR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN THIS PERIOD AND VWS INCREASES. FURTHER DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO COASTAL CHINA, SHOULD BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE SYSTEM AT A MORE ACCELERATED RATE PAST TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 72, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THEY SHOW A STRONGER STR BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDING TO THE WEST WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN