WDPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DEVELOPING EYE. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW 
AND KNES AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS, TS 22W HAS MEANDERED A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN 
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY HAVE 
ACCOMPANIED THIS DEVIATION IN TRACK. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND TRACK SPEEDS 
ARE SLOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE 
TO THE EAST, TOWARD THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE 
NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM 
WATER SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD DECREASE AS 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT BEGINS TO DECREASE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE 
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48 AND 
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CARRYING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES 
THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS 
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SECOND STEERING RIDGE. 
INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER 
WATER IN THIS PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE 
AFTER TAU 72, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE 
SOLUTIONS, SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA. THE 
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NAVGEM DETERMINISTIC 
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODELS, 
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
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