WDPN33 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES THAT IS STARTING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. A 300920Z SSMIS 37GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED UPON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH ALONG THE NER THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36, THROUGH THE NEXT 96 HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WIDELY SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH GFS, JGSM, THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. EGRR AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE EARLY TAUS TO FAVOR THE GROUPING TO THE EAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE PROPAGATING OVER JAPAN, WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF JAPAN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TD 22W. THIS SHIFT OF STEERING INFLUENCE WILL CAUSE TD 22W TO BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 96, TD 22W WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OCEAN PARAMETERS START TO DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OVER JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WIDELY SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A 500NM SPREAD AT TAU 120 AS GFS IS TO THE NORTH AND EGRR TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GROUPING. OVERALL, DUE TO THE LARGE VARIANCES IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.// NNNN