WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL 
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION 
AND FROM A RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER 
BUREAU WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENHANCE RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) TO THE NORTH.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY TRAMI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, 
CHINA AROUND TAU 06. TY 12W HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AND WILL GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND EVENTUALLY, 
FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ITS QUICK DECAY AND DISSIPATION 
BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL DATA REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.   //
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