WDPN31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 12// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY SYMMETRICAL AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FURTHER DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER AROUND A 13-NM PIN-HOLE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. COMPLEMENTING THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS THE VERY WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE ISLAND OF LUZON SHORTLY AFTER TAU 06 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PPREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. STY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. IT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON BETWEEN TAU 06 AND TAU 18. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AFTER REEMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DISCUSSED IN PARA 2. HOWEVER, DECREASING SSTS AND CHANGING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. C. STY UTOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY END OF FORECAST. THERE IS A TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC FORECAST TRACK MODELS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOESE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. // NNNN