WDPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM NORTHWARD OF KOROR,PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENEND SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED. A 082023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE THE WANING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 25 KNOTS DUE TO THE DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 11W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND APPROACH NORTHERN LUZON ISLAND. INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST.A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS DUE TO OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON AND TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). AT TAU 72, A MID- LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG IN FROM EASTERN CHINA AND MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE INTO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOW TD 11W AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE BRIEF LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT AFTER RE-EMERGING INTO THE SCS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE DYNAMIC MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE AFFECT OF THE TROUGH ON THE RIDGE AND THE LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THESE FACTORS.// NNNN