WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 060015Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT 
OF THE LLCC WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS (T2.0) FROM PGTW. TD 10W IS LOCATED 
WITHIN A MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW; POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED DUE TO 
NORTHERLY VWS. TD 10W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 
BASED ON THE 05/12Z 700MB ANALYSIS, THE STR EXTENDS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR OKINAWA OVER TAIWAN AND AS 
FAR WEST AS HAINAN ISLAND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, 
WHICH DEPICTS AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK INTO THAILAND, DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO 
NORTHERN VIETNAM. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 48 
AND WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD PEAK AT 40 
KNOTS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RE-CURVING 
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL 
DISSIPATE OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN BY TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE 
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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