WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR 
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN HAINAN. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 09W IS 06 DEGREES SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH BIAS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS JEBI IS EXPECTED TO RESURFACE IN AND CROSS THE GULF OF
TONKIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 12. THE
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE INLAND WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANOI DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY OF NORTHERN VIETNAM.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  //
NNNN