WDPN31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 20// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO A REAPPEARING POORLY DEFINED RAGGED EYE. A 120833Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO SOUTH, BUT ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SUBSIDENT AREA APPEARS TO BE A REGION OF DRY AIR, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) LOOP. THE TPW LOOP INDICATES THAT BANDS OF DRIER AIR HAVE BECOME WELL INTEGRATED INTO THE SYSTEM AND APPEAR TO BE WRAPPED BETWEEN THE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ARE MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO ERODE THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 121132Z MTSAT-2 IR IMAGE AND RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT CIMMS SATCON AND ADT CI ESTIMATES ARE 93 AND 85 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS TY 07W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10- 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 07W IS STEADILY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN JUST BEFORE TAU 12. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TY 07W IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE LANDFALL, AGAIN, OVER EASTERN CHINA. TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND TURN MORE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THIS THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, TY 07W IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE WARM KUROSHIO CURRENT. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN TAIWAN, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING OCCURRING AFTER LANDFALL WITH EASTERN CHINA. DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN