WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
REVEALS AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION 
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND AND INTO A SMALL AND POORLY DEFINED EYE. 
A 120013Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS LARGE BAND OF DEEP 
CONVECTION BUT ADDITIONALLY SHOWS A SUBSIDENT AREA IN THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SUBSIDENT AREA IS DUE TO SOME WEAK DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
LOOP AND ADDITIONALLY OBSERVED IN SEVERAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS 
SURROUNDING THE STORM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY 
AND RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 95 
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 77 
TO 90 KNOTS AND A RECENT CIMMS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS TY 07W CONTINUES 
TO EXHIBIT STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 07W IS STEADILY TRACKING WESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, MAKING LANDFALL 
ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN PRIOR TO TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL WITH TAIWAN, 
TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE 
LANDFALL AGAIN, INTO EASTERN CHINA. TY 07W IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE 
FURTHER INLAND AND TURN NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
DEEP STR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, TY 07W IS NOW ONLY EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 
100 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE 
WARM KUROSHIO CURRENT. AFTER TAU 12, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A 
COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO 
ERODE THE SYSTEM, WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING OCCURRING AFTER LANDFALL 
WITH TAIWAN AND CHINA. DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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