WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM 
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE BANDING FEATURES 
WRAPPING AROUND A RECENTLY REFORMED, RAGGED 25 NM EYE. INFRARED (IR) 
IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND SHALLOWED, 
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND WHILE THIS SYSTEM 
TRACKS OVER A COLD EDDY, WITH LOWERED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) 
VALUES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON 
THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND IR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TY 07W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RADIAL OUTFLOW 
WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RESULTING IN AN 
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TY 07W IS STEADILY TRACKING WESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. 
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS 
NORTHERN TAIWAN AND BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE 
TAIWAN STRAIT AND INTO EASTERN CHINA. TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY 
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COOLER OHC 
VALUES AND TRACKS OVER THE WARM KUROSHIO CURRENT. AFTER TAU 24, 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS VALUES AND 
LAND INTERACTION BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY A 150NM SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 07W WILL BE WELL INLAND BY TAU 72 
AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND 
AND INCREASED VWS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE 
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, BUT NOW 
ALL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, SUPPORTS A NORTHERN TRACK 
OVER LAND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED 
ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS AND THE WELL DEFINED STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT.//
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