WDPN31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION NOT CAPTURED BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS HAVE IMPROVED, ENHANCED BY TWO TUTT CELLS - ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED BY 20 KNOTS, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ESTABLISHED IN THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTE STEADY, IF NOT RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36 AND REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY END OF FORECAST AS VWS AND SUBSIDENCE IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 96 DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACK MECHANISM; AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE STEERING RIDGE. // NNNN