WDPN32 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS BUILDING TOWARD A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 202202Z SSMIS AND THE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WERE USED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MSI TO POSITION THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE STR IS ALSO CREATING MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HELPING TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 05W HAS BEEN TRACKING MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH WBAR COMING INTO CLOSER ALIGNMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. DUE TO THE INCREASED TRACK SPEEDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SSTS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS WILL MITIGATE MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS TD 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA HAS BEEN FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, TD 05W WILL WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72.// NNNN