WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 
01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CURVED BANDING. A 200932Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC
WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THIS TRMM IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS
FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS A 20/12Z SHIP OBSERVATION, LOCATED 46 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, WHICH SHOWED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 24 KNOTS
AND SLP NEAR 1001 MB. TD 05W IS LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS AND FAIR OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TD 05W AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND JGSM, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATING THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VWS THROUGH TAU 72. TD
05W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA NEAR TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 05W WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM AND
DISSIPATE OVER LAND.//
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