WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (YAGI) WARNING 
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS. THE IR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 081138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, 
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC THAT 
IS OVERALL BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED 
UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY, ALONG WITH POSITION FIXES FROM 
PGTW, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED 
AT 25 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED AT APPROXIMATELY 15N 
155E. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING AND TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH ON 
THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE 
POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST 
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED IN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE 
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. GENERAL INTENSIFICATION IS 
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN FAVORABLE, ALLOWING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO MODIFY AND BEGIN TO RE-ORIENT DUE TO MIDLATITUDE INTERACTION. 
THIS WILL DRIVE TD 03W ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS JAPAN 
THROUGH TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY AFTER TAU 48, INTENSITIES WILL BEGIN TO 
DROP AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE (<26 DEGREES 
CELSIUS) NEAR LATITUDE 25N, AND VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND LENDS TO 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND FURTHER 
WEAKEN UNDER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AT TAU 
96, TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF JAPAN. THE RUGGED 
TERRAIN OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TD 
03W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 
120. NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST, NEAR NORTHERN KYUSHU, 
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL PACKING, AS IT IS BUILDING THE 
STEERING RIDGE FURTHER WEST THEN THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC 
FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM SOLUTION AND FAVOR THE GFS, ECMWF AND 
EGRR SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS.//
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