WDPN31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 05// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 80NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE LACK OF CORE CONVECTION, A 200031Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS RECENT ISOLATED SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TD 02W REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISRUPTIVE LAND INTERACTION. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS WHEN IT TRACKS OVER THE SULU SEA BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH IS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN