WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG) 
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH
OF A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALSO ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR EXACERBATED BY A COLD
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.   //
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