WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 260005Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT TS 27W HAS
MAINTAINED ITS WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH RJTD AND PGTW. TS 27W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, THIS PHASE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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