WDPN31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 48// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MAINTAINS AN 11NM EYE. A 071145Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE AND A SMALL BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTI- CYCLONE OVER ITSELF WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE NORTHEAST LOCATED SOUTH OF JAPAN. LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. TY 26W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FORECASTED INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DUE TO THE CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION. B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STEERING WILL BECOME VERY WEAK AS A COL BETWEEN TWO DEEP- LAYERED STRS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. BY TAU 48, THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, ALONG WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS, DRIVING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, PICKING UP SPEED. INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TY 26W CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAVORABLE UPPER- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, TY 26W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL PROCEED SOUTHWEST PICKING UP SPEED AS IT TRACKS ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS A SURGE IN THE MONSOON FLOW BRINGS IN COLD DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SLOW WEAKENING TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODELS NOW ALL SHOW A SLOW LOOP IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH A LARGE VARIANCE IN THE EXTENT AND THE TIMING OF THE LOOP. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, BUT FAVORS THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTION, DUE TO CONSENSUS BEING PULLED NORTH BY WBAR. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LARGE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND UNDETERMINED INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE, OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.// NNNN