WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS NO SIGNS OF THE PREVIOUS EYE AS TY 26W MADE LANDFALL IN 
BETWEEN WARNING CYCLES. HOWEVER, THE DEFINITIVE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE MSI. A 032330Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE WAS USED TO SOLIDIFY THE CURRENT POSITION WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALONG WITH AN OVERLAND DVORAK ESTIMATE 
OF 115 KNOTS FROM RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OVER THE SYSTEM. TY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED 
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS 
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE SULU SEA. AFTER TAU 36 THE 
LLCC SHOULD TRAVERSE THE ISLAND OF PALAWAN AND IN RESPONSE UNDERGO A 
SLIGHT WEAKENING FROM THE LAND INTERACTION AND DISRUPTION OF FLOW. 
TY 26W WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOW PACE AND ENTER THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE FIRST OF TWO MONSOON 
SURGES. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT WILL ATTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME.
   C. DURING DAYS FOUR AND FIVE, TY 26W WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY 
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING IN A COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR 
LOBES. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SECOND, STRONGER, 
MONSOON SURGE OCCURS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS MID-LEVEL 
DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPRESSES THE DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SPREAD AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SULU AND EAST CHINA 
SEAS AND THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST 
FURTHER LENDS TO LOW TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE.//
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