WDPN31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 32// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED, INTENSE SYSTEM THAT HAS A 9NM EYE AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS ADDITIONALLY SUPPORTED BY A RECENT JUMP IN THE LATEST CIMMS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 141 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM. STY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE BUT FORECASTED INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED BASED ON THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. B. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE PHILIPPINES JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, STY 26W WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. INTENSITIES WILL DECREASE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS STY 26W TRACKS ACROSS LAND AND LOSES SOME ORGANIZATION THROUGH CENTRAL MINDANAO. AFTER TAU 36, STY 26W WILL SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY AS IT REORGANIZES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SULU SEA AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), GAINING A STRONGER POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERLIES, AND MAINTAINING AS A STRONG TYPHOON. OTHER THAN JGSM TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SCS, SLOWING TO AN ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY SPEED, AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO ELONGATED LOBES OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON WILL OFFSET THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS FORECASTED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS REMAINS LOW.// NNNN