WDPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 28// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A COMPACT, VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SMALL 5NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE SEEN IN THE EIR AND SUPPORTED BY A 021102Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT- SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS BY TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VWS, AMPLE OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A STRONG TYPHOON THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER LANDFALL, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 26W WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SLOW AS STY 26W TRACKS INTO A COL REGION BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND ANOTHER DEEP-LAYERED STR EXTENDING ACROSS FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH. EGRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER, SLOWING THE SYSTEM AND LOSING THE VORTEX IN THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO SOUTH DUE TO THE SHIFT IN THE MODELS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.// NNNN