WDPN31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 24// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A 9NM EYE THAT HAS SLIGHTLY CONTRACTED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ALONG WITH A 011113Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 26W HAS A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, AMPLE OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING A NEAR CONSTANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWEST AND SLOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM LANDFALL THROUGH TAU 120 AS LAND INTERACTION IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND EGRR. EGRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARP TURN NORTH AT TAU 96 AND GFS MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERN AND FASTER TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE NOGAPS, ECMWF, AND GFDN SOLUTION, WHICH ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.// NNNN