WDPN32 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI SHOWS THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE AND DEFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SUGGESTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 181947Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WEAKER WINDS WERE OBSERVED IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEARS (VWS) (20 TO 25 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE STR. UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENT HIGH VWS, AND DEFORMATION OF THE LLCC, WILL LEAD TO THE FULL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NUMERIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL TRACK EASTWARD, TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WBAR BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER BY INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH AROUND THE STR. THIS FORECAST KEEPS THE TRACK SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS THEY APPEAR TO LOSE THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK REMAINS HIGH EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.// NNNN