WDPN32 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 14// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 171021Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS FURTHER DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A NOTCH FEATURE ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TS MARIA WILL ACCELERATE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 MOSTLY DUE VERY STRONG VWS (OVER 30 KNOTS). NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WIDELY DIVERGE AFTERWARDS AS MANY OF THE MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX - AN INDICATION OF CYCLOLYSIS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. // NNNN