WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF 
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A SERIES OF RECENT 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A 142102Z WINDSAT PASS, WHICH 
SHOWS A CLEAR CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HIGHER 
THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM 
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES BASED ON RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP 
CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS 
STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER A 
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
    A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED 
ON A RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE INITIAL POSITION 
LYING TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT 
IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE 
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT INTENSIFICATION.
    B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL 
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND TURN EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH. FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE 
OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE 
NEAR-TERM, ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH AND 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W TO THE 
WEST SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. TS 23W WILL ENTER THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN JUST AFTER TAU 48 AND UNDERGO A RAPID 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A FULLY BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 72. 
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING 
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.//
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