WDPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING 
NR 34//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM 
WEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EXPANDING AND 
DETERIORATING AS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SURROUND THE SYSTEM. A 280525Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION 
RESIDES OVERLAND AND IS SHEARED NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE LLCC DUE TO 
STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC 
IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LESS THAN TEN DEGREES EAST OF THE 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ABOUT TEN DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED OVER OKINAWA. TS 
16W IS CURRENTLY STEERING IN BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE STR AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO 
NORTHERN KOREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM TAUS 03-24 TS 16W WILL 
CONTINUE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHERE COMPLETION IS EXPECTED 
BY TAU 36. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON 
THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE.//
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