WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS STARTED TO 
FORM A LARGE BANDING FEATURE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH THE CENTER BECOMING LESS CLOUD FILLED. A 230854Z WINDSAT 
37H MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LLCC UNDER THE CDO HAS A WELL 
DEVELOPED EYEWALL STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE WINDSAT 
IMAGE EVEN IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATING A 
SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES TY 16W IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A 
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. TY 16W 
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP 
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH, ANCHORED JUST EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE STR 
THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTRAORDINARY SIZE AND MAGNITUDE 
OF THE CYCLONE, IT WILL MODIFY THE STR, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD 
STORM MOTION. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM 
MONGOLIA AND TRACKING TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STR 
RESULTING IN AN EVEN MORE POLEWARD STORM MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL 
STEADILY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND PRIOR TO 
MAKING LANDFALL INTO OKINAWA.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W SHOULD TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE 
WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH. TRACK SPEEDS 
WILL ACCELERATE DURING THIS TIME AND INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE 
DECLINE AS OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, AN 
INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE 
COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES BUT WILL SEE A QUICK WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 
96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 
120 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA. OBJECTIVE AID 
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120. THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
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