WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING 
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE ON 202340Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE COMPOSITE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF  
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W IS WILL ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS
THE STEERING STR BUILDS. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS BOLAVEN WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK BUT SHOULD SLOW AFTER TAU 96 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN
FROM EASTERN CHINA, WEAKENING THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, REACHING 125 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
NOGAPS AND GFS FAVOR A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN. ADDITIONALLY, GFDN AND
WBAR ARE THE LEFT OUTLIERS DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72. BEYOND THAT, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.   //
NNNN