WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A RAGGED, BANDING EYE THAT IS SLIGHTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS. A 
SERIES OF SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES (022140Z AND 022340Z) DETAIL THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDING EYE WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW INDICATING 90 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF TY 04W. 
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS WEAK OVER THE LLCC 
DUE TO A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, VWS IS 
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) JUST EAST OF TAIWAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VWS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF LIMITED DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 
ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED BEHIND 
THE SURFACE FRONT. TY MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS 
ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING, EXTENDING FROM THE 
CYCLOGENISIS CURRENTLY FORMING JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN, WILL CONTINUE 
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STR TO WEAKEN ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY THUS CAUSING TY 04W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS 
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
(SST) VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS 
BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE BANDING 
EYE AND IS SUSTAINED FROM TAUS 24-36 TO CAPTURE THE NEXT DIURNAL 
MAXIMUM CYCLE. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED 
TO STIFLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS TY 04W APPROACHES ZONAL 
WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 
CROSSED 25 DEGREES NORTH INTO LESS FAVORABLE SST VALUES (LESS THAN 
25C) AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG 
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO 
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST (LESS THAN 
23C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETE ETT 
AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS IS THE REASON 
FOR DROPPING THE TAU 120 POSITION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL 
CONSENSUS. THE CPA TO KADENA AB HAS DECREASED BY ONLY SIX NM OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 NM TO 114 NM CURRENTLY.//
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