WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (PAKHAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALBEIT 
COVERED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS 
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 301053Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-
ROUNDED ARC OF LOW REFLECTIVITY OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
WAS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 02W IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 
LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TYPHOON PAKHAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG 
THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL 
JUST NORTH OF HO CHI MINH CITY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE LIGHT VWS, 
GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BY 
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATED. THE 
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF EGRR THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX DRASTICALLY POLEWARD 
AFTER TAU 12.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.    //
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