WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER
DEEPENED AND EXPANDED, COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PHILIPPINES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINED
OBSCURED BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A 110901Z WINDSAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWING
A SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE STORM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3.  A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    B. TS 23W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN FROM LAND INTERACTION OVER THE VISAYAN
ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS INTO
THE WARM SOUTH CHINA SEA (29 CELSIUS SST'S) AND WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TS BANYAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GULF OF TONKIN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT FANS OUT TO
ABOUT 20 DEGREES. JGSM AND EGRR ARE ON THE RIGHT AND WBAR AND GFDN
ARE ON THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN