WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCITED WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102131Z SSMIS 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK LLCC WITH A LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BAND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
TD 23W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3.  A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS 
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO AND THEN WEAKEN FROM 
INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. 
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA AND INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH WBAR REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND JGSM IS 
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A STRONGER POLEWARD PULL 
AS THE STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF 
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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