WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AS FORMATIVE 
BANDING, MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, CONSOLIDATED. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OBSCURED BY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, AND FROM A 100919Z WINDSAT PASS
SHOWING UNFLAGGED 30-KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH.    
3.  A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    B. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF JAPAN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO A
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER 
NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT DRAGS ACROSS
THE VISAYAN ISLAND CHAIN, IT WILL WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION.
    C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W WILL EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
RESUME INTENSIFICATION WITH A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 15 DEGREE 
SPREAD. WBAR IS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK.//
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