WDPN33 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 5NM SMALL EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND CORE CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED (CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES -82C). A 301147Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A 50 NM DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE EAST QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, TY 22W HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY, INCREASING BY 40 KNOTS FROM 75 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS ON THE 301120Z CIMSS AMSU OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 116 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE. 3. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, SUPPORTING A TRACK OVER NORTHERN LUZON THEN WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 125 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. C. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO EASTERN CHINA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SHORT-LIVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THERE IS A 275 NM SPREAD IN THE TAU 120 SOLUTIONS WITH GFS AND GFDN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE WHILE NOGAPS, ECMWF AND UKMO INDICATE A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN