WDPN33 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281030Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL DEEP CONVECTIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR AND SSMIS IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS IMPROVED. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, TS 22W SHOULD STEADILY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN TRANSLATION SPEED. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK SPEEDS DIFFER AS EGRR AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS WITH A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS NALGAE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON AND CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.// NNNN