WDPN31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 28// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. 300300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 119.0E. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC). A 29/2156Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.// NNNN