WDPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 14W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH IMPROVED, TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON A 231056Z TRMM 37H IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS FAIR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND HAS ALSO EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED FROM AN EASTWARD TRACK TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. GFDN HAS SIMILARLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW INDICATING A WESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF, GFS, UKMO AND JGSM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THIS TRACK IS ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TYPICAL TRACKS ASSOCIATED WITH A GYRE PATTERN. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND SHOULD REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE COMPLEX GYRE PATTERN AND THE FORECAST FUJIWARA BETWEEN 14W AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF, UKMO, JGSM, AND GFS SOLUTIONS.// NNNN