WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) 
WARNING NR 55//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AIR BASE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED 
NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION FLARING OVER 
THE LLCC. A 07/2253Z 91H GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED 
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER CURVILINEAR RAINBANDS AND A MORE 
VIGOROUS RAINBAND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHER THAN REPORTING 
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-45 KNOTS DUE TO KNOWN 
INTENSITY ERRORS WITH SYSTEMS THAT DISPLAY THESE CHARACTERISTICS. 
THE LLCC CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE YELLOW SEA AND MAINTAINS 
ITS HEALTHY STRUCTURE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF CENTRAL DEEP 
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW TS 11W 
IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTACT INTO 
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED 
POLEWARD VENTING FROM A CONNECTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLIES. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN HONSHU. 
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. BY TAU 12 THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE 
BROKEN DOWN THE STEERING STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS 
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA 
BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, WBAR AND GFDN, WHICH TAKE THE SYSTEM 
FURTHER EAST OF CONSENSUS AND BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SEA OF 
JAPAN. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION 
WILL DISSIPATE THE LLCC. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN 
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS.
// 
NNNN