WDPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) 
WARNING NR 53//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 
BROAD, BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA 
TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 11W. A 07/0904Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
SOUTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
TS 11W IS NOW COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. CURRENT POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 55 KNOTS. 07/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE 
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MUIFA IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. 
CURRENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) AND STEADILY 
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF TS 11W. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A WEAKER OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST 
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW TO 
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS DECREASING DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE 
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SUBSIDENT REGION IS PREVENTING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TY MUIFA. TY 11W IS 
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (< 26 DEGREES 
CELSIUS), INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (> 30 KNOTS), AND 
INTERACTION WITH LAND. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT TAU 24 
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN CHINA, RECURVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
   C.  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 
WBAR INDICATING LANDFALL IN NORTH KOREA SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
FORECAST ENVELOPE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
// 
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