WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WARMING
CONVECTIVE TOPS. HOWEVER, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
REMAIN INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
052157Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, 
KNES, AND RJTD TO REFLECT A ROBUST LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BENEATH
THE DETERIORATING CLOUD SIGNATURES. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AS ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) 
REMAINS FAVORABLE IN THE INTERIM. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
AFTER TAU 24 EAST OF SHANGHAI AS MOISTURE GETS BLOCKED BY THE 
CHINESE LANDMASS AND AS OHC DIPS.
   C. SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN THE OHC IN THE GULF OF BOHAI AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING BY TAU 72 AS TY 11W RECURVES
INTO NORTHEAST CHINA. IT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCY TO SLOWING DOWN 
DURING RECURVATURE.//
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