WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 
39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W STRUGGLING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT 
CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE STORM INTENSITY 
HAS FLATTENED OUT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT A 032024Z SSMIS 
IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE OUTER 
EYEWALL. THE NEW EYE IS EXPANSIVE, MEASURING NEARLY 90 NM IN 
DIAMETER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT 
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, YET EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE 
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE PAST FOUR 
DAYS, THE ANTICYCLONE AT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED 
FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH AND THE DATELINE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION 
NEAR 35N 160E. THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING 
THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER 
THE STORM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 
28 DEGREES.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
BUILD AND RETROGRADE, FORCING THE STORM TOWARDS THE EAST CHINA SEA. 
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STABLE AND MOVING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT. 
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS ALSO SHOWN AN EQUATORWARD TREND IN 
MOST OF THE AIDS, WITH MOST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING CONSENSUS, MOVING 
TOWARDS ECMWF. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN OKINAWA 
IS NOW GFS, AND THAT TRACK LOOKS TO BE A CASE OF EXCESSIVE DIRECT 
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE 
YELLOW SEA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONGEALED, AND THERE IS NO 
LONGER A DISPARITY BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 
72, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL INCREASE FROM ITS CURRENT 28 
DEGREES TO 29 DEGREES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS 
TURNING OUT TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THE CASE OF TY 11W. THUS, 
TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A RELATIVELY FLAT INTENSITY TREND UNTIL 
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL, WHEN SLIGHTLY WARMERS AND SLIGHTLY LESS 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 
100 KNOTS.
   C. TY 11W WILL GRAZE THE EAST COAST OF CHINA, COMING VERY CLOSE 
TO SHANGHAI, NEAR TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALL THE 
WAY TO THE COAST. STORM INTENSITY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 
TRACK AND CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. THE WARMEST 
WATERS AND LOWEST WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS NEAR TAU 72. THUS, THE 
TY 11W WILL REACH ITS HIGHEST INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY FLOODING ALONG THE CHANG MA BOUNDARY IN 
THE TAU 96-120 RANGE AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE YELLOW SEA 
LINKS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS OF TY 11W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AND FILL BETWEEN SHANGHAI AND 
BEIJING, BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM 
MAY SET UP A DEEP MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER NORTH KOREA.//
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