WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN 
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EYEWALL DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TWO BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SPIRALING INTO 
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. A 03/1111Z AMSU-B 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION THAT 
HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE EYEWALL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED GOOD 
EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC 
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W 
IS EQUATORWARD OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND POLEWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN 
AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED 
OVER HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. TY 11W EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT STRUGGLES TO RECOVER FROM THE MOST 
RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. AFTER REMAINING IN FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS TY 
11W TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W 
WILL CONTINUE STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP 
LAYER STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. TYPHOON MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CHINESE 
COAST AFTER TAU 72, WHERE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RESULT IN A 
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE INTENSITY CHANGES OF THE SYSTEM. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH NGPS 
AND GFS STILL WELL RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND EGRR AND ECMWF LEFT OF 
CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 
REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.
//
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